earnings
confidence high
sentiment negative
materiality 0.85
Alaska Air Group slashes Q4 adjusted EPS guide to ~$0.10 from at least $0.40 on $0.55-0.60 in headwinds
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.
- IT and cloud outage in late Oct expected to reduce EPS by $0.25 from ~400 cancellations.
- Government shutdown caused ~600 cancellations and lost bookings, reducing EPS by $0.15.
- Higher economic fuel cost of ~$2.65/gal (vs prior $2.55 midpoint) adds $0.15 EPS headwind.
- Q4 tax rate now 40-50% (FY 2025 ~27%), contributing additional ~$0.10-0.15 EPS drag.
- Capacity (ASMs) expected up ~2% vs pro forma 2024; RASM up ~1%; CASMex up ~3%.