regulatory
confidence high
sentiment negative
materiality 0.80
UK tax hikes to cost Flutter $320M EBITDA in FY2026, $540M in FY2027
Flutter Entertainment plc
- UK iGaming duty rises 19pp to 40% from April 2026; sports betting (ex-horse) up 10pp to 25% from April 2027.
- Before mitigation, impact ~$320M in FY2026 and ~$540M in FY2027 on adjusted EBITDA.
- First-order mitigation (marketing/opex cuts) expected ~20% of gross impact in first 6 months, rising to ~40%.
- Net EBITDA impact estimated at $235M in FY2026 and $339M in FY2027 after first-order mitigation.
- CEO warns tax hike strengthens illegal operators and cites Netherlands precedent where tax rise cut government receipts.